So erkennst du deine wahren Freunde

0:00a painful realization that the small number of good friends want you to win in case you take them with you and the large number of bad friends are scared of you winning in case you leave them behind. The best way to know who a real friend is is how they react when you win. And when that happens, you'll realize how few real friends you really have. Mhm. I I mean, look, I don't know whether it's just some sort of cosmic blessing or whatever, but or maybe I'm discerning with friends. I don't know. Or maybe it's small circle thing or whatever. Um it's been very rare that that's that I've been on the receiving end of that. Um that I've I've ended up being around as soon as I left the UK. And even the people that I was around in the UK had chosen a relatively small group of people, but all of them [ __ ] like still now to this day love we're still in touch. We still we still support each other and I keep I'm loving seeing what they're doing. But I get the sense that if you're a little bit more open, if the circle is a little bit more open, there is a huge amount of incentive for you to listen to people who do not have your best interests at heart. And they [ __ ] suck. And those people need to get out of your life.

1:16One of my rules is you should only take advice from people whose dreams for your life are bigger than yours are, [sighs and gasps] >> which is a very small number of people. Sometimes it's your parents. Sometimes your parents really do have bigger dreams for you than you do. >> In different ways as well, in ways that you don't notice. >> I mean, I think the the closest approximation to yourself is a spouse. It's the most it's the most tactically aligned person that you can have. Still obviously there are some spouses who are are not good but I can say that I think Leila's dreams for me have been in many ways bigger or ahead of where my dreams for me have been um and I have big dreams and you know listening to her um has has has yielded really great returns but to the point that you were saying earlier about those those friends that were kind of with you in the early days I think it's actually cyclical.

2:05So the people who are closest to you in the beginning, if they're like true like actual friends, then you recognize that because they actually want you to win. And that's amazing. A lot of people don't have that. And so what I have felt at least for me was that when you're a little ahead is where the friction is. When you blow them out of the water and there's no question like it's it's beyond reproach, they will do one of two things. they will either be really happy for you or they'll change the game that they're beating you at.

2:37That's great, but I'm in better shape. That's great, but my marriage is better, right? Like, or whatever, you know, whatever game that they choose to play. And so, I think the last um the last quote that you had there about um friendly reminder that every person who doubts you is right until they aren't. It's a bug, not a feature. >> It's not a bug, it's a feature. >> Yeah. People who doubt you will be right most of the time. And this further increases your uncertainty about the path that you're choosing to take.

3:13But on a long enough time horizon, most people who don't bet are guaranteed to lose. And so they get to win at being right more times than you get to win at being right. But what that equation doesn't take into consideration is intensity, which is can I be so right one time that it makes all of the times that I was wrong irrelevant? And in the nature of life, the answer is yes, almost a resounding yes for just about every domain. Like everyone can say that every person you've ever dated has sucked and they can predict that you're going to break up until you find the person that you're going to marry. And in that moment, who [ __ ] cares about the other 90 people that you went on dates with that everybody said was a bad idea or that you have a bad picker or you don't have a good taste. It's like, well, you're not marrying them. I date in a way that's different than than you would prefer. Great. But I did end up finding this thing. I the you know the first thing that I ever did was you know an online an online fitness thing and it kind of worked and then I did my first gym and it kind of worked and then I started all these other other side side projects. I got distracted and I didn't know and many people were like sure like good luck with that but I knew that they just weren't really rooting for me. They were rooting for me to fail. They're rooting for me the wrong way. And so the downside risk is significantly smaller and more frequent.

4:40It's both. You're more likely to lose and it's more likely to happen more times. It's just that upside is uncapped. And so, and I think about this one a lot. So, there's the story of the guy. Do you know the guy who wrote Jingle Bells? >> No. >> So, >> I didn't even know that that was I thought it was like Happy Birthday. I thought it was just gifted to humanity when when we started. >> So, there's this guy. He's a he's a it's he has the most tragic life you can imagine just like an a complete like you don't know his name right I can't even remember his name right has did nothing but failed was a failed everything and his entire life was nothing he just happened to write this small thing called jingle bells and it has become you know the number one song at Christmas time like maybe globally and I think about that life where it's like what if I failed at everything but then I have one thing that actually makes a permanent impact. I was like, would I trade that life for Aristotle's good life where I amount to nothing but the whole time was good? And this is just one of my eternal battles where I think with myself that I have no answer for to be clear. But when I'm when I'm thinking through the periods where things suck, I'm like, well, maybe maybe I'll get a jingle bells out of this

5:49>> and maybe it'll just take 20 years longer than I thought >> on the contribution of other people. The pessimists get to be right and the optimists get to be rich. >> And it's because of intensity. It's the thing that it's we are so bad at estimating >> value returns. >> Yeah, we're very it's very hard for us to compreh comprehend an outside return. We're very good at binary thinking of yes, this worked. No, this didn't work. But we're not very good at thinking through the bet of I get 10x and I'm going to lose 50% of the time. People don't make that bet and they should do it every time.

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