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Was du mitnimmst
- Wir überschätzen wie schlimm Risiken sind und unterschätzen fast immer die möglichen Chancen.
- Genau in der unterschätzten Chance steckt oft der eigentliche Vorteil im Business.
- Ein 50 Prozent Risiko auf das Zehnfache lohnt sich, selbst wenn du die Hälfte der Zeit verlierst.
- Angst entsteht im Vagen, nicht im Konkreten: die Sache genau durchdenken nimmt die Angst.
Volltranskript
Das Transkript ist das englische Original mit Timecodes. Die deutsche Zusammenfassung steht oben. Sprecher werden automatisch zugeordnet.
0:00So I was I was thinking about what you were saying earlier with regards to risk and our ability to detect it. So the other part of that that's been really interesting is we also not only do we detect more threats, we also overemphasize how catastrophic they could be and the converse of that is we rarely identify the upside. And when we do, we typically underestimate the upside. And I think this is something that a lot of people don't talk about as much. Um, obviously I always have a business, you know, hat on literally.
0:32Uh, and but I think about this because I think this is where like you said at the very beginning that people complain because they cannot accurately view reality. And so if we tie that to this concept, then it means that people will disproportionately blame the universe and then perceive significantly greater risk for them asking Google out, starting a business, taking a loan, uh you know, asking a stranger to buy something,
0:59>> making a podcast and for fear of what other people on the internet will say or people who know them, right? Right? So we we catastrophize this side, but the flip side is and you hear this a lot when people, you know, do make it and what not. They're like, I never dreamed it would be this big. Now, some people are obsessive and like absolutely have thought through everything. I fall more on that side. Uh but uh on on the other hand though, a lot of people do get there and they're like, I never thought it was going to be this big. And it's because we typically just underemphasize the upside, which is where from the business perspective, it's like that's where the alpha is. That's where the outperformance exists. where most people think, hey, this bet uh it could go to zero. And you're like, h I don't think it's going to go to zero. But even if it did go to zero, I have a 10x here. And so if I have a 50% shot at a 10x and the other 50 is zero, I should take that shot every single time
1:47>> knowing that I'm going to be wrong half the time, it still makes sense to take. >> And so I think um people are not good at making those riskadjusted return bets um obviously financially, but even in the very micro aspect of our lives. And so the we talked earlier about uh you know the cosmic irrelevance and the frame of the veteran but there's a third frame that I think about a lot which is I call it play it out. And so it's like let's no let's let's sit in there because again fear exists in the vague not in the specific
2:12>> and in the resistance. >> Yes. And so like when we have these um these spec specificities of like okay I'm going to start a p I can't start a podcast like okay it's this big vague thing but no like let's play it out like let's see what actually would happen. So, I'm going to upload something and then people don't listen to it. Okay. Well, they didn't listen to it. Okay. Well, then that's not a problem. Okay. Let's say people, let's say tons of people listen to it, which I don't know how that magically happens, but let's say tons of people listen to it and they all hate it. Okay. Immediately you have this anxiety that No, but but let's play it out. Like, what's happens next? It's like, okay, is it going to change what I eat? Is it going to change where I sleep? Okay, let's say let's say I all of a sudden I lose all the money that I have. It's like, okay, well, I probably have a bunch of people that if I really needed to sleep on their couch or in a spare bedroom, I could do that.
3:03Okay, so I'm not really going to be homeless. And if I really didn't have enough money for food, I can go to a homeless shelter and get food, right? So, it's like, wait, so my worst case scenario is like I have shelter and I have food and I'm still breathing air. So, that's the downside. And so, there's this catastrophizing that we cuz we our brains are meant to are meant to keep us alive. We literally think if we fail, we die. Like everyone will will ostracize us from the group and we will be alone and die.
3:30>> And so just actually playing it out, not one step, but like two more steps after that, you're like, "Okay, so my actual downside risk is nothing, but my upside is everything I've wanted." And even if I even if I'm at 50% off on that, it's still worth the shot. Real quick, I'm going to show you the exact 10 stage road mapap from zero to 100 million plus that less than one percent of companies finish I've now done multiple times. And so I can say with a lot of confidence that these are the stages as headcount increases that you need to get through.
4:00And I broke each of these down by eight different functions of the business, what the constraint feels like, like what are the symptoms of it when you're going through it. And then what steps we actually took to graduate. And we've done this across software, physical products, uh service businesses, brick and mortar, all of this. and it works and it's my gift to you. It's absolutely free and so the link's in the description, but you just go acquisition.comroadmap. Just enter your info and it'll spit it right back to you.